|Salle C 108 | Université Paris-Dauphine|
"The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Outmigration in Nazi Germany"
By the end of 1938, more than two-thirds of the Jewish community was still located in Germany. In this paper we estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1942. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of almost the entire universe of Jews living in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform counterfactual policy experiments in order to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews.
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