La prochaine réunion du groupe de travail "Économie des Transports, de l'Energie et du Climat" aura lieu le mercredi 20 novembre de 12h15 à 13h30.
Intervenant : Ilya Eryzhenskiy - Institut des Politiques Publiques
Papier : Droughts and housing: past impact and future risk estimates from French credit data
Abstract : Among all extreme weather events in France, most additional climate-related damage in 2020-2050 is expected from droughts. It is largely due to shrink-swell of clay soils that deforms buildings with superficial foundations. Using administrative credit data, I estimate the shrink-swell impact for 2012-2021 and banks’ response to the additional damage anticipated within the next decades. Impact is estimated using renovation loan data and an event study methodology, where the event is a declaration of a state of drought and its intensity varies with the shrink-swell exposure of a given area. I show
that renovation loan production of an average bank branch increases by 55% when shrink-swell hits all municipalities of an agglomeration. I then calculate the cumulative shrink-swell experience of a given bank’s branch network, to quantify differences in information on the damages. I relate this measure to characteristics of home purchase loans in areas where shrink-swell has not happened in the past decades, but is expected in the future.
Loans of banks with more shrink-swell experience tend to be substantially larger and carry a modest additional non-interest fee, while the interest and duration of loans is not affected.
Informations importantes :
- Nos sessions se déroulent en ligne, voici le lien Teams pour cette session.
- Le groupe de travail Économie des Transports, de l'Energie et du Climat est organisé par la Chaire Gouvernance et Régulation de l'Université Paris Dauphine-PSL. Le groupe de travail organise habituellement une présentation hebdomadaire tous les mercredis après-midi (12:15-13:30 CET) sur des sujets relevant des domaines de l'économie des transports, du climat, de l'environnement et de l'énergie.
- Pour vous inscrire à notre liste de diffusion ou pour vous porter volontaire en tant que futur présentateur, vous pouvez écrire à la coordinatrice, Shahmeer Mohsin : shahmeer.mohsin@dauphine.psl.eu.
